Saturday, April 15, 2006

Strategy 3: Nose to the Grind Stone

A solid 10hrs at my laptop today: 8 of them playing blackjack, 2hrs of poker.

I mentioned a 'Strategy 3' a couple of months ago, but it's taken me this long to decide whether defining it was a wise move. For 1) some might think I'm a delusional fool. For 2) the sort of +EV situations I'm about to describe aren't limitless. The casino's pockets aren't bottomless. When the number of people taking these situations starts to approach the number of people losing (to all the usual -EV games the casinos offer) the opportunites will dry up.

But I figured 'what the hell': 1) I don't care what other think, and 2) hardly anyone's reading this blog so it doesn't matter! Also, there's no need to name names, I'm just going to define strategy 3 with some easy maths, and some simple language.

I have been a member of a reliable online casino for several years. About a year ago I discovered that on specific days the casino offers a variation of blackjack with a payout of 100.825%.....only on about $40K of action. That's an EV of +$330.

Fortunatley the software is very fast, so $40K action at my betsize takes about 7hrs.

I actually ended up above EV by quite a bit after grinding my way through $40K worth of action. Playing 1000's of hands of blackjack endlessly is extremely boring sometimes, but there's no way I'm complaining about it: it beats real work. Also, it's never boring during the upswings in variance ;-)

Providing you are adequately bankrolled (and use the correct bet size to reduce your risk of ruin to an acceptable level) I guess the only 2 things that can go wrong are:

1) Applying incorrect basic strategy (i.e not splitting when supposed etc etc).
2) The casino does not offer random cards.

I make the occassonial mistake, but I don't think this shaves of more than 0.1% in EV.

The casino is legit, my own records indicate so. They also proudly display their licences and results of audits at their website.


andy said...

hey. i did miss you post in march.

exams start in 10 days!
england is warming up. its a averaging 13-16 degrees, so give it 2 weeks or so and it will be really nice.

i was wondering if i could email you and ask a few questions about playing poker and travelling?
my mother has finally given an inderect 'ok' for it all (even though i don't need any financial backing from her), so i am now very interested in playing poker and travelling around north (and maybe south)america this summer.
my email addy is if you are happy to answer some questions that i might come up with.

andy said...

hey i'm also gonna add you the 'blog roll'